With odds that are twice as good as the next-best candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has a 50/50 chance of securing the Democratic presidential nomination, according to FiveThirtyEight. Bodog has already checked my math, and their odds for who will win the nomination agrees. Sanders is the leader at EVEN, trialed by Biden at +275 and Bloomberg at +450.

There’s no better time to be a political betting fan than during the party primaries leading up to an election year. During this process, handicappers are treated to 50 individual contests, one for each state—all available to bet—which culminate in a Democratic presidential candidate being nominated at the national convention.

Depending on the year, the field of competitors can range anywhere from two main candidates (like in 2016) to twenty, as was the case early in the 2020 primaries. Political handicappers watch the various debates, poll numbers, and media happenings, tracking who has the best odds of winning the nomination overall, as well as who has the edge in the next state or handful of states.

Best Sites for Betting on the Democratic Nominee

The US democratic primary betting sites above have been reviewed for a wide range of crucial factors, including safety, history/reputation, variety of wagers, bonuses, and website quality. Of all the online sportsbooks to pass our vetting process, these were found to be the very best political betting sites available.

If you’re going to be betting on the Democratic Party elections, we advise you open accounts at several of the top sportsbooks. Democratic betting odds can differ significantly from website to website, especially during the busier weeks in the race, like Super Tuesday, for example.

Once you’ve made your predictions, you’ll want to find the political betting site offering the best odds for that candidate, so you’re always maximizing the value of your wagers!

Betting Democratic Contests

What makes the primary season so thrilling for liberal betting handicappers is the high volume of events available. Each of America’s 50 states holds an individual inter-party contest to nominate their specific pick to become the party’s presidential nominee. Each of the states has a unique set of rules and voting processes. They’re divided into two main categories of voting: primaries and caucuses.

State Primary

State primaries are a standard electoral event in which voters cast ballots for the candidates they’d like to see nominated to represent the Democratic Party. When betting on US Democratic primaries, pay close attention to the types of voting machines a state uses, and whether the state party representatives keep a transparent paper trail. Politics is a dirty game, so you always have to pay attention to potential interference and security issues.

Caucuses

A caucus is different from a primary, as the voters do not cast ballots. Instead, they meet in designated precincts to discuss and show their support for preferred candidates. Each precinct is its own mini competition. Caucuses are much less precise than primaries and more susceptible to controversial results. In 2020, there are far fewer caucuses than before. After 2016, eight states changed from caucuses to primary systems, with only Iowa, Nevada, and Wyoming still caucusing.

DNC Nomination Futures Wagers

You can also bet on the eventual Democrat nominee at any time during the primary process. The overall 50-state competition for the nomination is called a “primary,” same as the “primaries” held by most individual states. So, for example, some caucuses are part of the primary process. (A little confusing, we know!)

Many sites that offer odds for betting politics will post their DNC nomination numbers over a year prior to the election year, setting lines for a large field of possible candidates. Online sportsbooks will often include multiple novelty picks, such as Oprah Winfrey, Dwayne “the Rock” Johnson, and Mark Cuban.

As the primary progresses, the markets sharpen at US Democratic election betting sites, and the field of top-tier candidates becomes clearer. With each primary/caucus outcome, day of news cycles, and new poll results, the posted lines continually update to reflect the latest data. Thus, timing your DNC primary election futures bets for maximum value is just as crucial as picking the right candidate!

Bet on Democratic Primary Debates

Throughout the process of selecting the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, the candidates will traditionally meet in a series of public debates. Sometimes, these debates will cover a specific topic, while in others, they’re left open to a broad range of issues.

At some events, between one and four moderators will ask the questions and officiate speaking times. In other instances, the DNC will organize “town hall” style debates, in which members of the audience are given a chance to direct questions directly at their candidates of choice.

Watching the Democratic debates is an essential part of handicapping political primaries. How candidates are perceived on stage often dictate how enthusiastically supporters donate money to the campaigns and can have a significant effect on poll numbers. Pay attention to how well each participant answers the questions as well as how they come across on television. Sometimes, it’s not what they say, but how they say it, that matters most.

A fantastic debate performance can’t turn any old candidate into a frontrunner, but a disastrous showing can quickly tank even the most promising campaigns. More than anything, you want to bet on Democrat candidates who are less likely to suffer massive humiliations that will haunt them the rest of the primaries on live TV.

2020 Democratic Primary Debates

For the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic Party scheduled 12 DNC-sanctioned debates, beginning in June 2019. Six debates took place in 2019, with the remaining six reserved for the first four months of 2020.

This includes one scheduled in each of the four earliest primary states, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, all within a week of the upcoming contest in that same location. Almost two weeks after Super Tuesday (March 3, when 16 states and territories hold their primaries simultaneously), the remaining candidates will meet on stage again, in Arizona. The twelfth, and final debate has not yet been scheduled at the time of writing this guide on US Democratic election betting sites.

Democratic National Convention Betting Opportunities

• When: July 13-16, 2020
• Where: Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Choosing a Nominee

Following the 50 state-level contests, the remaining candidates arrive at the Democratic convention in July to plead their cases for the nomination. Each state awards a set number of pledged delegates, which are proportionately allocated to the candidates that finish with 15% or more of the votes.

For example, in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders came in first place, with roughly 3,500 more votes than Buttigieg in second. Amy Klobuchar received 19% of the vote to come in third. Sanders and Buttigieg both won nine pledged delegates, while Klobuchar earned six. So, as you can see, a candidate can technically “lose” a primary and still gain an equal number of these crucial pledged delegates.

Superdelegates and Pledged Delegates

At the Democratic National Convention, a candidate needs 1,991 or more pledged delegates to secure the party nomination on the first ballot. For 2020, a new rule was enacted barring superdelegates, high-ranking party insiders and donors, from the initial vote. This was changed after 2016, when the superdelegates, who were all pledged to Clinton before the race began, appeared to cancel out the voters’ choices.

However, if nobody secures the 1,991 pledged delegates on the first ballot, the 500 to 700 superdelegates will be allowed to cast votes. Additionally, every previously pledged delegate becomes unpledged for each subsequent round of voting. It doesn’t matter to whom they originally belonged.

If the nomination requires more than one round of voting on the convention floor, that’s called a “contested” or “brokered” convention. Between the extended field of candidates and new rules allocating delegates proportionately (instead of “winner takes all” like before), the 2020 convention has a high likelihood of being contested.

2020 Democratic Debate Participants

• Joe Biden
• Bernie Sanders
• Elizabeth Warren
• Pete Buttigieg
• Amy Klobuchar
• Tulsi Gabbard
• Michael Bloomberg
• Beto O’Rourke
• Tom Steyer
• Andrew Yang
• Kamala Harris
• Cory Booker
• Julian Castro
• Marianne Williamson
• Michael Bennet
• Bill de Blasio
• John Delaney
• Tim Ryan
• Kirsten Gillibrand
• John Hickenlooper
• Eric Swalwell

Finding Value in Democratic Primary Betting Odds

For the most up-to-date news, information, and strategies related to US democratic election betting, check out our latest political wagering blog posts. They’ll break down specific results and upcoming contests, as well as share expert opinions and predictions for both individual primaries or caucuses along the way and DNC nomination futures odds.

In this section, we’ll go over some basic Democrat betting concepts to consider when handicapping the 2020 democratic primary elections. Wagering on politics hasn’t been popular in the United States for very long, but since 2016, we’ve learned quite a bit about how to accurately predict election results.

Example of Political Odds:

• 2020 Democratic CandidateOdds
• Joe Biden -140
• Bernie Sanders +175
• Michael Bloomberg +1600
• Hillary Clinton +3000
• Elizabeth Warren +5000
• Michelle Obama +8000
• Tulsi Gabbard +50000

Always Think About Betting Value

Whether you place a bet on politics or sports, a successful handicapper always has their mind on finding value. To make a profit over the long term, you have to look further than your surface-level predictions.

Positive betting value exists when the implied probability of the odds is exceeded by the real-life likelihood of an outcome taking place. For example, a -200 favorite has an implied probability of 66.67%. Another way to think of that is at those odds; you’d need to win the payout 66.67% of the time to break even.

So, if a Democratic candidate is listed at -200 to win the South Carolina primary, for example, but you’ve determined there’s a 70% chance they’ll emerge victoriously, that bet has value! If you like a candidate’s odds in a given race, but their line makes the payout not worth the risk, stay away. It doesn’t matter how sure you are that the favorite will win.

Follow Poll Numbers, but Don’t Overvalue Them

Poll numbers can be an extremely helpful tool throughout the primaries process. Assuming you primarily follow the more prominent, trustworthy pollsters, these updates can grant insight into which topics and issues are resonating most with voters. You can also track which candidates are surging and which are on the decline.

Many polls even break down each candidate’s support with individual demographics of people, including by age, race, economic class, and more. This data will also be useful in helping to predict how Democratic primary contenders will perform in upcoming contests.

However, you don’t want to lean on the poll numbers too heavily. That’s the mistake so many pundits and political bettors made in 2016. Sometimes, polls possess inherent biases. Many of these surveys are conducted over the phone, for example. Older voters are much more likely to answer a call from an unknown number and participate in a poll than younger citizens.

There have also been instances of pollsters going out of their way to collect data that supports their personal desires. In 2016, many of the top Democratic-leaning media outlets continuously oversold Hillary Clinton’s likelihood of winning. They routinely posted misleading poll numbers, while the crowd sizes at both candidates’ campaign rallies told a different story.

So, follow the polls to get a feel for the general “rhythms” of the Democratic primaries over time, but don’t let them exclusively dictate your Democrat betting decisions.

Read Competing News Sources

These days, it’s too easy to get stuck in a bubble where one only sees the news that agrees with their worldview. Liberal media constantly attacks and blames conservatives for everything wrong in this country, while simultaneously ignoring the criticisms of Democrats, while Fox News and right-wing outlets do the exact opposite.

As a result, there are precious few news sources attempting to report objective facts. This is unfortunate because, when placing a bet on politics, the objective truth of what’s going to happen is all that matters.

Until you find a handful of objective journalists, like our political betting experts at The Sports Geek, at least make sure you’re collecting information from a variety of sources. If you’ve read three CNN/MSNBC articles, mix in a few Fox News or Breitbart pieces to see what the other side is saying.

Remember, your personal political leanings do not matter, nor does your opinion regarding which party is correct. All that matters is predicting how the competing messages will be met by the American electorate and who will win their races.

Be a Student of History

“History repeats itself,” as the old phrase goes. When betting Democratic elections, you’d be shocked by how much valuable knowledge can be gleaned from prior election cycles. The 2020 primary, for example, closely resembles the 1972 race. Bernie Sanders fits the description of a modern-day George McGovern and Joe Biden’s troubled campaign is reminiscent of Ed Muskie. Donald Trump would be Richard Nixon, the first of only three presidents ever to have been impeached, with Trump being the third after Bill Clinton.

The similarities won’t always be so obvious, but there’s still plenty to learn. When there’s a small field, what kind of candidate benefits? What effect does a larger field of options have on strong grassroots movements? In this case, a larger, more divided field, gives more progressive “outsider” campaigns an advantage since the moderates are split amongst several similar politicians.

2020 Democratic Primary Candidates

Bernie Sanders

At the time of writing, Democrat Socialist Bernie Sanders—a senator from Vermont—is the favorite to win the 2020 nomination. Sanders went head-to-head with Hillary Clinton in 2016, where he built the powerful progressive movement that powers his candidacy today. Many in the leadership and donor ranks of the DNC do not like Bernie, nor do they see him as a “true” Democrat. Because of this, he’s often met with resistance from liberal media outlets and party officials alike.

Joe Biden

Joe Biden spent several decades in Congress and served as Barack Obama’s Vice President from 2008 to 2016. For months, before the first Iowa caucus, the former VP polled as the national favorite to win the Democratic nomination. However, his status amongst the field proved overblown once the real contests began. He’s relying on a first-place finish in South Carolina to remain viable.

Many have been looking ahead to 2020 since the moment Donald Trump took the Oath of Office back in January of 2017. Yet another presidential election is only a year away, which is somewhat hard to believe since the 2016 election still feels fairly fresh.

Plenty of people have entered the race with aspirations of unseating Trump next November. The vast majority of them will fail, of course, but that hasn’t stopped hopefuls from giving it a shot. As many as 2 dozen Democrats jumped into the race at some point, but the field has already whittled itself down to 16.

While it may seem a bit late with the Iowa Caucuses coming up in early-February, a new name appears primed to join the race. Reports on Thursday afternoon indicated that former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is ready to run for president. He has reportedly filed the necessary paperwork in order to get on the ballot in Alabama before Friday’s deadline, which is a pretty clear indication of his plans.

What does Bloomberg’s decision mean for the Democratic nomination? Can he actually win? And, can he beat Trump if he does wind up securing the nomination?

Long Shot Betting Odds

Bloomberg has not yet formally announced his plans to join the race, but reports say that announcement could come as early as next week. The 77-year-old has toyed with the idea of running for president several times in the past, but he now seems motivated to actually take the next step.

While he does have plenty of name recognition, Bloomberg is still seen as a long shot by oddsmakers. BetOnline did not even give Bloomberg odds until November 7, when word started to leak that he could be considering a run. The former mayor is now at +800 to win the nomination, which puts him in the same territory as a leading candidate in Bernie Sanders (+800).

Bloomberg actually has far better odds than most of the candidates that have been in the race for months. Here is a complete look at the updated odds to win the Democratic nomination, per BetOnline:

BetOnline has also given Bloomberg +1400 odds to win the general election, which gives him the exact same odds as Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Warren (+300) and Biden (+800) are the Democratic frontrunners, while Trump (+140) currently paces the field as the lone Republican with betting odds.

Why is Bloomberg Running?

Current Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination

As mentioned, Bloomberg has long considered the idea of running for the White House, but this will be the first time he actually does so. Bloomberg announced back in March that he would not run for presidency, and those in the know say that he made the decision because he believed that former vice president Joe Biden would be too daunting an opponent.

So, Bloomberg’s late decision to run is a pretty clear sign that he and others are worried about Biden’s ability to finish the job. Biden is still listed among the betting favorites (+400 to win the nomination, +800 to win the presidency), but his campaign has not taken off the way many thought it would when he initially decided to run.

Biden is courting moderate Democrats and preaching a message of unity in this age of political divisiveness. He is also pandering to the wing of the Democratic party that fondly remembers the Barack Obama years. He was Obama’s vice president, after all.

Should he enter the race, Bloomberg would try to appeal to the same base of voters that Biden is targeting, which could complicate things. They’re comparable in age (Bloomberg is 77, Biden is 76), but Biden has made headlines over the course of his campaign due to a number of gaffes that have left many wondering whether he is physically and mentally capable of running the country. Those same questions don’t seem to be there for Bloomberg despite the former mayor being a year older.

Those in charge of the Democratic party are also fearful that a more left-leaning candidate like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders would not be able to get mainstream voters on board with their more liberal agendas. Warren and Sanders have been steady challengers to Biden’s frontrunner status, but some insist that voters in the general election are more interested in a centrist candidate.

Bloomberg is essentially running in an attempt to replace Biden as the centrist alternative to the Warren/Sanders wing of the party. South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg has risen in recent polls as a centrist, as well, but he has generated almost zero support among African American voters.

Bloomberg’s Political Track Record

Billionaire businessmen running for president seems to be in vogue these days. Trump obviously succeeded in his first formal run in 2016, while Tom Steyer recently joined the race on the Democratic side. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz infamously considered running earlier this year, but he was essentially laughed out of the race by social media. Andrew Yang may not be a billionaire, but he is another wealthy businessman with no previous political experience.

Unlike the other billionaires, though, Bloomberg actually has quite a bit of political experience under his belt. Being the mayor of a city as massive as New York is no small thing. NYC is home to 8,000 times as many people as South Bend, Indiana, for example.

Bloomberg was in office in New York from January of 2002 until New Year’s Eve of 2013. He actually ran for mayor as a Republican, and he was elected to 3 terms in all. He switched his affiliation to Independent before being elected to his third term in 2009. In 2018, he registered as a Democrat.

Democratic Nomination

Some believe that Bloomberg has the nebulous “electability” that candidates like Warren and Sanders do not. He has name recognition, he has money and he has a political track record. Bloomberg will reportedly fund his own campaign to start, which will make him ineligible for the televised Democratic debates.

Whether Bloomberg is actually more electable than some of the other frontrunners in the field obviously remains to be seen. That said, the fact that he is a well-known commodity at this point makes him an interesting value betting option. He’s certainly more viable than someone like Yang (+1200), who has a strong base of support but seems to be having trouble breaking into the mainstream.

Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination Tracker

That said, it’s also tough to gauge how a new candidate will fare before they actually begin campaigning. Biden was supposed to take off, but he hasn’t. Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke was seen as a heavyweight when he entered the race, but he flamed out very quickly before eventually dropping out last week. Kamala Harris is another candidate whose campaign has gotten stuck in the mud.

I don’t think Bloomberg would enter the race, especially at this late stage, if he did not think he had a realistic chance of winning. While candidates like Biden and Buttigieg seem to get lost in campaigning on things like unity, I think Bloomberg can actually find some footing in the race if he focuses on common-sense policy ideas with a consistent, coherent message.

Bloomberg at +800 to win the nomination is a very interesting value. I’d bet on that before the odds are able to correct themselves.

Can Bloomberg Beat Trump?

Whichever candidate winds up securing the Democratic nomination will have a tough battle with Trump, who proved to be a formidable foe for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

That said, Trump’s approval ratings have been consistently low during his time in office to this point, and the threat of impeachment is currently looming over him. It seems more likely than not at this point that the House of Representatives will vote to impeach Trump sometime before the calendar flips to 2020.

However, the Republican-led Senate seems unlikely to vote to remove the 45th president from office, which would obviously keep him on track to run for re-election next year. Trump is very likely to lead the Republican ticket again in 2020, even if he winds up getting impeached in connection with the ongoing Ukraine scandal.

Polling indicates that most of the current Democratic contenders would beat Trump in a head-to-head election. Polls should be taken with a grain of salt, of course. Clinton consistently crushed Trump in the polls leading up to the 2016 election, and we know how that turned out. Trump will have his base of voters by his side no matter what, and it’s also certain that Russia will try and help Trump win, just like they did last time around.

Odds Of Winning The Democratic Nomination

Frankly, I think any candidate that winds up securing the Democratic nomination is better than a 50-50 bet to win the general election. For that reason, Warren (+300), Biden (+800), Sanders (+1400) and Bloomberg (+1400) are all excellent betting values at this point. It’s really just a matter of deciding which candidate you think has the best chance of actually winning the nomination. Warren has the lead as of now, but we’ll see if Bloomberg’s presence winds up affecting the rest of the field.

Odds Of Winning Democratic Nomination

Political betting is inherently risky considering things can change in the race on a daily basis. Those that bet on someone like Beto O’Rourke to win the election know that more than anyone. That said, it will be interesting to see how Bloomberg joining the fray will shake up the race on the Democratic side.