Over Under Parlay Calculator
- If you're a player looking for calculators on football and sportsbetting in general, I have also included tools that allow you to calculate house edge on spread and straight bets as well as various prop bets using the spread and over/under numbers.
- The Parlay Calculator indicates how much money sports bettors can win if they placed a bet on a certain number of games. For example; if I were to place a $20 wager on 3-teams football parlay at -110 money line odds, my parlay payout would be $119.16.
The Parlay Calculator indicates how much money sports bettors can win if they placed a bet on a certain number of games. For example; if I were to place a $20 wager on 3-teams football parlay at -110 money line odds, my parlay payout would be $119.16.
(NJ) Bet with your head, not over it! Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. (NV) If your gambling is no longer fun, don’t wait for the problem to get worse. Contact the Nevada Council on Problem Gambling or call 1-800-522-4700. (PA) If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available, call 1-800-Gambler. To use this calculator, enter the point spread and over/under line, then click the 'calculate' button. For example, you might enter -7 for the spread and 43 for the total. The calculator will calculate the fair line on some common props based on this information and historical NFL games from the 2000 to 2014 seasons.
Therefore, the parlay calculator will count the amount of picks you have chosen (3), times the amount of each money line (-110), times your wager ($20) and then show you how much you would win on that wager ($119.16).
Please notice, when putting in favorites, you need to add the minus sign in front of the number. Example: If the Boston Red Sox are a PK -150 favorite vs. the New York Yankees, enter '-150' in the box.
Same thing with NFL Football, if the New England Patriots are a -7 point favorite, enter (-110). If they are -220 on the money line, enter -220.
How much does it pay and how do you win a parlay?
In order for a parlay bet to win, every one of your wagers must win or push (tie). If any of the other selections on your ticket loses, your wager loses, regardless of the outcome on the other games. Also, if one or more selections are a tie, postponed, incomplete, cancelled or rescheduled for another day, then the wager reverts to the next lowest number. For example, if you place a 5-team parlay and have 4 winners and a tie, your wager pays out as a 4 team parlay. If you place a 2-team parlay and one team wins and one tie; the wager becomes a straight single bet.
Try it out, simply put in the numbers and the parlay calculator will do the rest!
What is a Parlay?
What is a 'Parlay'? Two or more teams or totals can be combined to make one wager. Let's say you bet $100 on the Pirates +150 and the Pirates over 8 at -120 in a two team parlay. Use the following steps to determine your winnings or should we say potential winnings.
Calculate the parlay factor for each piece. If the price of the piece is positive, simply add one to get the factor. If the price of the piece is negative, calculate the reciprocal, multiply by -1, and then add one (1.50 + 1 = 2.50 -1.20). Take the reciprocal or divide one by the negative price (1/1.20 = 0.83 + 1 = 1.83).
Multiply all factors. Multiply this factor times the bet amount. The result is the payoff (including your bet): 2.50 x 1.83 = 4.57. Now multiply the result by 100 (4.57x100). $457 is your total return if both pieces win (including your bet amount).
Subtract your bet from the figure calculated in 2. The result is your winnings $357 ($457 - $100 = $357). Did you get that? Or, go to www.parlaycalculator.com and let the calculator take care of it for you!
Do you need parlay betting advice?
If you're a parlay type bettor that likes to bet the total and side of a game, here's a piece of advice.
If you bet on the Favorite, take the OVER. If you like the UNDERDOG, take the UNDER. The logic behind this theory is simple.
For example: when a team is favored by 7 points or more with an OVER of 44.5, all you need is for the underdog to get up ahead or stay in the game as long as they can. Because the favorite is more likely to catch up and put up some points on the board, the percentage is good to cover the over. As for the dog, if they can keep the favorite off the board, the percentage of the UNDER and dog covering is on your side.
Say what you want against parlay betting, I like it! Many experts will discourage their friends from betting on parlays, I'm the opposite. If you buy a lottery ticket, in my view you're buying into the parlay strategy.
Sportsbook managers tell me all the time, 90% of the players end up losing their entire deposit. Get the best casino bonuses that you can get, while shopping for an online casino or sportsbook.
Take that bonus money and take a shot at a 5-team or 8-team parlay to try and get that one big score, go for it!
Don't do it every day and don't wager the farm! Here's what I like to do, come NFL season, I make my 1 or 2 big wagers and then I go 'parlay tripping' with an 8-team to 10-teamer. Let's face it; if you can hit an 8-team or 10-teamer, you're going to cash a nice ticket. Just live within your means and bet what you can afford to lose.
Many novice bettors are told to stick only to straight bets. That’s because they don’t do the work or research to make wise investments with teasers and parlays. You too may have been told that parlay wagers are considered sucker bets. That’s not accurate at all. There are several instances where betting parlays is a profitable proposition.
Now, that doesn’t mean you should just throw any two or more teams that you like together into a teaser or a parlay. You have to use a different strategy. This article is going to cover some solid parlay situations where you can KILL a book that allows you to make certain combinations (Check out our teaser guide to see what we mean for each of the different sports).
Correlated Parlays: What They Are Explained & How to Find Them
There’s a lot that goes into making a strong parlay bet. First things first, you need to make sure you understand how parlays work. That’s just the start, there’s more advanced stuff like when is the right time to hedge your bets.
I’m not going to get into all of that today. Instead, I’m going to introduce to you what a correlated parlay is. I’ll explain exactly what it is and how to find them.
Definition
I’m going to keep it simple. A correlated parlay is a wager in which you have two bets that are tied together. If one of the wagers wins, your chances of winning the second bet increases. Most sports books are not going to accept these types of wagers because if they did, they wouldn’t stay in business very long.
Are they Profitable?
So what would it take for a correlated parlay to be profitable? If you are hooking up two teams the payout is typically 2.5-to-1. That means that you have to win 28.6% of your two teamers to turn a profit. That is figured by the return of 3.5 divided by your risk which is 1.
Now a few books like 5Dimes will give you a 2.64-to-1 payout. In that case, you only have to win 27.5% of your two-team parlays in order to turn a profit.
Let’s assume one side of your parlays hits at 50% of the time. How probable does the second event need to be in order for the parlay to be to your advantage? For the typical two-team parlay payout it needs to be 57.2% (.572 * .5 = 2.86). If your payout is 2.64-to-1 then it’s 55% (.55 * .5 = .275).
Now let’s look at situations where if one leg of the parlay wins, the other wins at more than a 57.2% clip. There are several different types of these wagers. I’m going to cover two of the most basic ones in this article.
Why You Can’t Parlay First Half with Full Game Odds
First, we are going to look at the correlation between the first half spread and the spread for the game. Next, we will look at the correlation of betting the spread and total on the same game.
If a team covers the first-half spread of a game, how often do they also cover the point spread for the entire game? If you know the team that covers the first half line is more likely to cover for the game, you can parlay those wagers and make a killing, right?
That is exactly the question I wanted to answer, and I was pretty impressed by the results.
First things first, I want everyone to understand that I am aware that no online or Vegas sportsbooks (that I know of) allow correlated parlays. This article is more about why correlated first half parlays aren’t allowed, however, if you have a local book happens to allow them, you can most definitely use this information to your advantage, that is, until your book cuts you off!
Why it is Profitable
What exactly is a correlated first half/full game parlay? You are looking to bet the first half and the full game on the same team. Either the favorite or the underdog. You can do both, but that will appear pretty obvious and likely to get you cut off sooner.
I’ve provided the hard numbers for the NFL and NBA below, but let’s just talk about the method behind the madness first. We are going to use typical two-team parlay odds, which pay 2.5-to-1 (or bet $100 to win $250). We will also use $100 as the base bet amount to make things as easy to understand as possible.
Let’s say the Patriots are favored in a game against the Lions by 7 points. In the first half, they are likely to be 3.5-4 point favorites. Our bets for this game would be:
- $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Patriots -3.5 (1st Half)/Patriots -7 (Game)
- $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Lions +3.5 (1st Half)/Lions +7 (Game)
Now obviously one of these wagers is going to lose, but that’s ok! Our goal here is just to win however many parlays we need to in order to turn a profit. Let’s say you decide you are going to bet correlated parlays on five games on a Sunday, how many parlays would you need to hit in order to turn a profit?
The worst you can perform and still turn a profit is to go 3-7 (30%) on the night. Here’s the math:
- 7 Losses x $100 = $700
- 3 Wins x $250 = $750
- Total Profit = $50
Now, based on an uncorrelated two-team parlay, you are only expected to win 25% of your bets (50% chance to win each = 25% chance to win both). This makes sense – otherwise, everyone would just win truck loads of money by betting parlays.
The secret here is to increase our chances of winning the second piece of the parlay. That’s where the correlation between the first half line and the game line come in. When teams cover the first half line, they have better than a 50% of covering the line for the game, right? Logic would tell us that they would, however, hard data is even better.
Historical Data from the NFL and NBA
NFL
- Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 73.3%
- Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 76.7%
NBA
- Favorite Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 70.1%
- Underdog Covers Both 1st Half and Game Line: 69.8%
In all of these situations, if the team covers the first half line, they are much more likely to cover the game line. For example, using NFL favorites, you are given the standard 50% chance to win the first half, but then a 73.3% chance to win the game, meaning you have about a 36.6% chance of winning your parlay.
Since you only need to hit 30% of your parlays (28.6%, to be exact) to turn a profit, these bets are a no-brainer! In fact, if you can increase your chance of winning the second bet in your parlay by 7% (so up to 57%), you should make a profit over time.
Let’s look at the expected return. Let’s just say you hit 75% in the NFL and 70% in the NBA to keep it simple. So .5 *.75 = .375 means 37.5% of the time you win $250. You lose $100 62.5% of the time. Your expected profit would be 93.75 (.375 * 250) – 62.50 (.625 * 100) for $31.25 for every $100 bet. Now if the number is 70% in the NBA you get .5 * .7 = .35. 35% of the time you’d win $250 and 65% of the time you’d lose $100. (.35 * 250) – (.65 * 100) = 87.50 – 65.00 for $22.50 of profit for every $100 bet.
You can now see why sportsbooks won’t allow you to bet parlays on the first half and game of most major sporting events. If bettors were allowed to wager on these, they would soon be out of business, as you are nearly guaranteed to make a profit over time with this method.
Of course, there may be some local books out there that aren’t aware of this, so don’t be afraid to ask around and see if there’s a sucker out there willing to take these bets!
Why No Same Game Parlays in Football? They Are Correlated
I took a look at the four major spread sports and ran the numbers. I was trying to find any situations where if a favorite or underdog covered and the total hit more than 57.2% of the time. Here is what I found.
College Football
I went back to the last 3,732 games a favorite covered the spread. What I found was the over had a record of 1,959-1,773 (52.5%). In the 3,361 games when the team a field goal or more favorite the over was 1,793-1,568 (53.3%). If the team was laying a touchdown or more the over was 1,328-1,082 (55.1%).
The over percentages started picking up when we look at double digit favorites. The over then hit 57.4% of the time on a record of 1,090-808. When a favorite of two touchdowns or more covers the over went 838-582 (59%). A 20+ point favorite covering leads to a 547-321 record for the over (63%).
When a team 28+ point favorite covers the over has hit 261-122 (68.1%) of the time. When you stretch the line out to 30 point favorites or higher the number jumps up to 216-92 (70.1%).
If a team a 35 points or more chalk and covers the over went 127-51 (71.3%). There have only been 95 favorites of 40+ points in recent years with a lined total. In those games, if the favorite covers the over was 65-29 (69.1%).
If instead of looking at the hard numbers you go with percentages then the magic number seems to be about 40%. The spread has to be 40% of the total for you to take the favorite and the over or the underdog and the under.
Overall this system has seen the over go 495-274 (64.4%) when the favorite covers. Keep that in mind when taking a look at the college football odds every week.
NFL
So let’s take a look at the same parameters in the NFL. Here you won’t find nearly the same correlation. Looking at all favorites the over has gone just 1,576-1,532 (50.7%).
Let’s see if the over hits at a higher rate as we increase the number. A field goal or more favorite covering means a record of just 1,289-1,245 for the OVER (50.9%). Move up to a touchdown or more you will find the over was 527-487 (52%). However, stretch it out to double digits and when the favorite covers the over only went 203-194 (51.1%).
Favorites of more than two touchdowns that covered also went over the total 56.2% of the time at 50-39.
Can You Parlay Over Under
There is no magic number with percentages here either. That makes sense. There aren’t going to be as large of favorites in the pros v. college. There are only 16 games that have seen a spread at 40% or more of the total.
The bottom line is you can’t rely on any sort of correlation to beat the pro lines each Sunday.
In basketball, you’ll find the trend reverses. This makes sense. What happens when a big favorite is up at the end of the game? Both teams kill the clock and try to get out of there. Here is the data that I found.
NBA
Favorites of 5.5 or more that cover goes UNDER 51.1% of the time at 3,368-3,224. If you stretch the number up to double digit favorites who hit, the UNDER lands 52.5% of the time at 1,006-912. If you go up to favorites of 15 points or more that cover the under has hit 56.2% of the time at 122-95.
College Basketball
There doesn’t seem to be as much correlation with NCAA basketball. When a team covers as a favorite of six or more the under went 4,309-3,954 (52.1%). Favorites of eight or more that covered went under 3,264-2,865 (53.3%) of the time.
However, once you went up to double digits the numbers started dropping. Double digit favorites went under 52.8% of the time (2,318-2,072). 13+ point chalk that covered only went under 1,371-1,231 (52.7%) of the time.
Over/under Parlay Calculator
Conclusion
Over Under Parlay Calculator
The problem with the correlated parlays is finding a place that will take your action. The reputable sportsbooks that we use know about these statistics and won’t let you play them. You will need to find a square book to take the action. Or, just pair up the smaller spreads that you really like with the corresponding total.